Let's talk about the current market...

What you think about KLSE today in general? Is it bullish? Is it bearish?

Where do you think it will go tomorrow? Are you going to jump in? Are you going to stay on the sideline?

I jumped in a bit bit already...but only on two stocks that
I have been eyeing....when i bot earlier, one of the stocks was
five sen more expensive...a real laggard........and there was one
other stock that I actually averaged up....still holding firm.........
This wan must thank ze folks from the Edge ....they no write up
for nothing wan....what they did not disclose was the possibility
of good things happening....and that tooo , I heard wind that
that they were doing an interview on those buggers way before
they wrote that article....an ok co' with real potential....I'm sitting on
some nice gains already...yup , I still have it....and just imagine
how much them folks at the eDge " untung "......

go for your fav...I still have Petra.....and the " show " I heard
have yet to begin....Do not follow me folks.....  


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Originally posted by kelley at 2003-9-8 06:16 PM:
I jumped in a bit bit already...but only on two stocks that
I have been eyeing....when i bot earlier, one of the stocks was
five sen more expensive...a real laggard........and there was one
othe ...

Well.... all the stocks in my watchlist got shot down today, except for one - FBO. Looking at the way the market making its way down, I'll still stay by the sideline tomorrow.

Last 5 days of Nora Index:

Date       Open    High    Low     Close   Vol     Note
========   =====   =====   =====   =====   =====   ====================
20030902   2.233   2.251   2.188   2.210   12303   BD-2
20030903   2.208   2.225   2.157   2.188   12632   BD-2
20030904   2.201   2.233   2.179   2.206   14938   Neutral --> CI > 740
20030905   2.204   2.228   2.172   2.200   10790   Neutral --> Lower High, Low, Close & Vol
20030908   2.189   2.205   2.134   2.164   9675    BD-2

Looks like the market is going south again after a 2 day rest. The lower volume could mean that not all the pros are selling, probably because they had done so on the 4/9 and 5/9. If the volume kept below 10K, the price will go nowhere for 2 or 3 rounds of force-selling days.

I'm not in... but keep one eye on FBO...


Nora

There's a reversal signal for FBO yesterday.  

Cheers!

Originally posted by Nomad at 2003-9-9 09:15 AM:
There's a reversal signal for FBO yesterday.  

Cheers!

9 Sept 2003

FBO may be one of those stocks that are able to swim against the current. Very tempting, but noooo.... I myself will only swim with the current.... There are always another counters when the market swings up...

Risk takers who wanna try FBO, I suggest should only try after 4:30pm if: Low never lower than 0.39, Strong buyers > 0.41 especially after 4pm, Vol > 72,000.

That's to ensure the reversal signal not nullified...

Cheers!

Nora,

What software do you use to open your downloaded EOD feed?  Thanks for your ideas, it's very much clearer now.  You did mention the author of the book explaining this indexing method, do you remember the title of the book?  The bookstore punye orang memang tak guna betul, cari buku pun tak tau...

With the current market outlook, I think it is very hard to apply any of the technical analysis especially if you have a short term view.  What you are doing is definitely useful for the majority of us.  I think, timing the market is definitely more important!

Let's pray for a pleasant surprise during the budget announcement.  Like this, memang matilaaa, bad news after another.

Many thanks again!

Cheers

Originally posted by Nomad at 2003-9-10 08:49 AM:
Nora,

What software do you use to open your downloaded EOD feed?  Thanks for your ideas, it's very much clearer now.  You did mention the author of the book explaining this indexing method, do y ...

For Metastock chart, I used the Downloader which came with Metastock.

For analysing using Excel (where I derived Nora Index from), I opened the raw text file from within Excel, and set "delimited - comma" and manipulate the data from there.

The way I do it is to use VLOOKUP function. I did it this way:

1. The raw data (must be sorted) is copied onto a tab, say named "RawData"

2. Perform your personal indexing in another tab, say named "ersonal Index", as partly illustrated below:


     A             B                                            C
1 Counter    Open                                  High
2 ABRIC     =VLOOKUP(A2,RawData!A1:G300,2,FALSE)    =VLOOKUP(A2,RawData!A1:G300,3,FALSE)
3 FBO       =VLOOKUP(A3,RawData!A1:G300,2,FALSE)    =VLOOKUP(A3,RawData!A1:G300,3,FALSE)
4 MALTON    =VLOOKUP(A4,RawData!A1:G300,2,FALSE)    =VLOOKUP(A4,RawData!A1:G300,3,FALSE)
5 RENONG    =VLOOKUP(A5,RawData!A1:G300,2,FALSE)    =VLOOKUP(A5,RawData!A1:G300,3,FALSE)

All need to be done is to average out all the numbers for Open, High, Low & Volume... That's your own Index!

I really can't remember the title of the book... sorry. But if you look at any books written by Daryl Guppy, there should be a section about "Creating Your Own Index". He didn't mention about the Excel formula above in his book. But you get the formula from me already...

Happy Indexing!

Nora

[ Last edited by Nora18 on 10-9-2003 at 01:37 PM ]

Last 8 days of Nora Index:

Date       Open    High    Low     Close   Vol     Note
========   =====   =====   =====   =====   =====   ====================
20030902   2.233   2.251   2.188   2.210   12303   BD-2
20030903   2.208   2.225   2.157   2.188   12632   BD-2
20030904   2.201   2.233   2.179   2.206   14938   Neutral --> CI > 740
20030905   2.204   2.228   2.172   2.200   10790   Neutral --> Lower High, Low, Close & Vol
20030908   2.189   2.205   2.134   2.164   9675    BD-2
20030909   2.180   2.196   2.129   2.146   9306    BD-2
20030910   2.109   2.133   2.065   2.106   11631   BD-2
20030911   2.108   2.155   2.096   2.144   11056   Neutral


On 10/9, looking at the sudden increase in volume, the market was at a junction. Should the price keep falling on 11/9, a lot of people will really be in trouble. Luckily, that is not the case. All prices (except for Open, which is minor) went up.

The market seems to rebounced yesterday, with most counters stops breaking down. Though the data is not that convincing, my intuition says that the bottom may be over. Confirmation is needed from today's nad Monday's data.

Bear in mind, that there are 2 major things that may affect the way the market react in the next couple of days. One is the budget, second is the wounded traders who need to get out of the market. While the positivity of the former is seen from yesterday's trade, the latter can be the force that pull the price down.

Action causes reaction, and I react based on what happend in the market. I believe we cannot be "proactive" as a trader. No one can predict the market. So, I will only react to enter the market if the action of the market is reasonably correct.

For me, my intuition is confirmed if and only if... Friday's and Monday's (and possibly Tuesday's) data shows a contuining increase in all prises and volume. By then, the information from the budget being tabled should have been well consumed by the public, and the wounded traders has been outst from the market...

SARS... I dont think that has any effect yet... keep my fingers crossed...

My 2 sen...

Last 11 days of NI (Nora Index).


Date       Open    High    Low     Close   Vol     Note
========   =====   =====   =====   =====   =====   ====================
20030902   2.233   2.251   2.188   2.210   12303   BD-2
20030903   2.208   2.225   2.157   2.188   12632   BD-2
20030904   2.201   2.233   2.179   2.206   14938   Neutral --> CI > 740
20030905   2.204   2.228   2.172   2.200   10790   Neutral --> Lower High, Low, Close & Vol
20030908   2.189   2.205   2.134   2.164   9675    BD-2
20030909   2.180   2.196   2.129   2.146   9306    BD-2
20030910   2.109   2.133   2.065   2.106   11631   BD-2
20030911   2.108   2.155   2.096   2.144   11056   Neutral
20030912   2.147   2.171   2.121   2.146   8879    Neutral (Budget day)
20030915   2.131   2.168   2.108   2.149   7820    Neutral
20030916   2.135   2.176   2.117   2.159   9688    Neutral


Yesterday's CI seems to be in disparity to NI (Nora Index); while the CI was down, NI show Close price keep increased for the 4th day in a row. Should I discount the data on the 12/9 due to the over optimism of the traders to make quick bucks, I would see a steady increase in all prices, which is good sign that show market direction. Nevertheless, this sign is still weak.

For a short term, I still need to see today's and tomorrow's data to ensure that this won't be a yo-yo; where buyers came when prices were down, and quickly disappeared when the price notch up a bit. If this happend, we may look at a lifeless market for a while. A strong sign of buyers is needed to verify the current trend.

A swinger trade with trend. A day-trader trade with volatility. An investor trade with strong companies. Being a swinger, I need to ensure that the bullish trend has been formed...

Today's NI (17/9/2003)

[font=Courier New]Date       Open    High    Low     Close   Vol     Note
========   =====   =====   =====   =====   =====   ====================
20030917   2.179   2.221   2.156   2.191   13529   BV-7



I'm in..... wish me luck!!

Good luck!

Errr...maybe watch out a bit because of scomi's suspension yesterday, if traders pull out today....

Originally posted by Nomad at 2003-9-18 08:47 AM:
Good luck!

Errr...maybe watch out a bit because of scomi's suspension yesterday, if traders pull out today....

Thanks.

Scomi thingy, I believe it was due to the deal with Intria....

Cheers!

Nora,

I hope you bought some FBOs, to be honest, I could not see anything from the chart, but bought on the basis of the smooth selling absorption, and the purchases were in large volume.  You think they are the retailers?

Originally posted by Nomad at 2003-9-18 02:51 PM:
Nora,

I hope you bought some FBOs, to be honest, I could not see anything from the chart, but bought on the basis of the smooth selling absorption, and the purchases were in large volume.  You t ...

While banging my head on the nearest wall, I wrote this note, "Never drop any counter that managed to whether the storm, as they may the the one which propel to the moon after the storm cleared..."

Nope, I didn't buy FBO....

I dropped FBO few trading days ago after FBO seems to broken down... Nevermind....

[ Last edited by Nora18 on 18-9-2003 at 04:22 PM ]

Originally posted by Nomad at 18-9-2003 14:51:
Nora,

I hope you bought some FBOs, to be honest, I could not see anything from the chart, but bought on the basis of the smooth selling absorption, and the purchases were in large volume.  You t ...

like some sound basis for speculating on a stock....hehe...
anyway , goodluck..........

Just trying to establish the relation between emotion and price movement.  Did the same thing with symphony a couple of days ago...anybody here go through the intraday chart?

Mati-matilah, don't care, still in the experimenting stage.

Good luck everybody!

Originally posted by Nomad at 2003-9-19 08:46 AM:
Just trying to establish the relation between emotion and price movement.  Did the same thing with symphony a couple of days ago...anybody here go through the intraday chart?

Mati-matilah, don't ...

How do you attempt to establish between the two (emotion & price)?

For me, volume is emotion...

Tried with symphony a couple of days back, noticed that sellers were dictating price at about 4:1 ratio, and the volume per trading dictated by the sellers were rather large (on average 1,000 new lots).  So just thought that greed were dominating the scene, so I pun jump in laaa.

Sold immediately when the ratio reversed, but I think second wave is coming...

Same thing with FBO, ratio of about 3:1 and sudden surge of volume.  I went in bit by bit, average up the price instead of down.  AGain, losing steam this morning, so I pun cabut!

Currently in my radar is gadang, but have to be extra careful about this counter.  Currently ratio is at 2:1, losing steam...compared to about 10:1 this morning...and another one AWC, again losing steam also...

Just testing only...what do you think?  make sense?

Originally posted by Nomad at 2003-9-19 03:27 PM:
Tried with symphony a couple of days back, noticed that sellers were dictating price at about 4:1 ratio, and the volume per trading dictated by the sellers were rather large (on average 1,000 new l ...

Very interesting... I think they called that "tape-reading". But I believe tape-reader does not actually differentiate between buyers and seller, but rather the volume and direction of prices. Well....

I see that you do a bit of day-trading.... I no longer do that. I can't really comment on that tactics, but it does sound OK. Just careful on those who park big volume on buyer queue so that buyers "forced" to buy off seller queue... I see that as a trap...

Manipulating the buyer queue....that one kena already!!!  a few times actually.  

STill have not found the time to look for the indexing book.  Very keen to learn that.  Very soon I hope.

The other day ING announced that there are 37 gov't related companies in the KLSE.  Do you by any chance know how I can get the list?  In view of the increase gov't spending...next year.

Have a nice weekend!