Let's talk about the current market...

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031112  2.399   2.439   2.362   2.393     15,274    Bearish
20031113  2.403   2.443   2.362   2.398     12,812    Bearish->Sideway
20031114  2.403   2.433   2.357   2.386     10,450    Bearish
20031117  2.348   2.363   2.273   2.301     11,195    Bearish
20031118  2.324   2.357   2.291   2.320      8,679    Bearish->Sideway



While the prices stops getting lowered in general, the volume is pathetic. It would be more important now to see where the prices go with increasing volume. That would be the direction of the market... If the volume stays this way, we would be looking at a sideway market.


Cheers,

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031113  2.403   2.443   2.362   2.398     12,812    Bearish->Sideway
20031114  2.403   2.433   2.357   2.386     10,450    Bearish
20031117  2.348   2.363   2.273   2.301     11,195    Bearish
20031118  2.324   2.357   2.291   2.320      8,679    Bearish->Sideway
20031119  2.306   2.322   2.236   2.268     10,640    Bearish



In any disaster, there is opportunity....

In this bearish market, how do we look for opportunity? Every counters seems to make new low on daily basis. Those which does not make a new low today is going to make it tomorrow... How? How? How to watch?

This is what I do... I scan my NI index component to look for counters that stops making new low, but its volume in the past 3-4 days constantly about 200% to 400% its usual average... Accumulation flashing before your eyes! Just notice them, not to buy them yet. Buy them when the market is ready to move... Now is the time to do your homework, swingers!

Cheers!

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031114  2.403   2.433   2.357   2.386     10,450    Bearish
20031117  2.348   2.363   2.273   2.301     11,195    Bearish
20031118  2.324   2.357   2.291   2.320      8,679    Bearish->Sideway
20031119  2.306   2.322   2.236   2.268     10,640    Bearish
20031120  2.283   2.316   2.243   2.280      7,414    Bearish->Sideway


Spot as many counters with signs of accumulation as possible i.e. those with sudden increase in Volume. Note them down. Memorize their names. Understand their play. If you can swing one or two of them when the time come, it pays all the efforts.....


Cheers

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031117  2.348   2.363   2.273   2.301     11,195    Bearish
20031118  2.324   2.357   2.291   2.320      8,679    Bearish->Sideway
20031119  2.306   2.322   2.236   2.268     10,640    Bearish
20031120  2.283   2.316   2.243   2.280      7,414    Bearish->Sideway
20031121  2.258   2.319   2.230   2.303      7,922    Sideway


It would be a very long holiday before the market will open again. Will the sign of bullishness continue during the opening bell next Thursday? We can only see that next Thursday, aren't we?

So, in the mean time, enjoy your holiday. I wish Selamat Hari Raya to those who celebrate it, and Happy Long Holiday to those who don't...


Cheers!
Nora

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031118  2.324   2.357   2.291   2.320      8,679    Bearish->Sideway
20031119  2.306   2.322   2.236   2.268     10,640    Bearish
20031120  2.283   2.316   2.243   2.280      7,414    Bearish->Sideway
20031121  2.258   2.319   2.230   2.303      7,922    Sideway
20031127  2.317   2.350   2.277   2.312      6,830    Bullish


Hi all... I am all exited about the bullish divergence between CI and NI after yesterday's closing. However, the volume is a concern, I guess a lot of market players still intoxicated with all the ketupat & rendang.... Hmmm... If CI and NI be in sync either today or tomorrow, that would be the signal that this young bull is ready to go....

For the time being, the research done last week is still valid...

Cheers!

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031119  2.306   2.322   2.236   2.268     10,640    Bearish
20031120  2.283   2.316   2.243   2.280      7,414    Bearish->Sideway
20031121  2.258   2.319   2.230   2.303      7,922    Sideway
20031127  2.317   2.350   2.277   2.312      6,830    Bullish
20031128  2.300   2.350   2.275   2.327      9,468    Bullish


Monday is the day to enter the market if and only if...

1. By 4pm, the number of counters above Friday's Close > counters below Friday's Close
2. By 4pm, the total volume traded > 460M shares

Those who want to play safe, may just wait for Monday's close before deciding.... Anyhow, just ensure that the counters you picked does not dipped below Fridays' Low.

Err... don't forget to remember to have a stoploss before you place your order!

Cheers!

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031120  2.283   2.316   2.243   2.280      7,414    Bearish->Sideway
20031121  2.258   2.319   2.230   2.303      7,922    Sideway
20031127  2.317   2.350   2.277   2.312      6,830    Bullish
20031128  2.300   2.350   2.275   2.327      9,468    Bullish
20031201  2.353   2.419   2.339   2.397     12,153    Bullish


For those who had entered, just watch out for your Stoploss. For those who want to join the crowd, perhaps look for counters which dipped due to profit taking. Have a stoploss before you enter the trade. We simply won't know how long and how far this bull can go...

Cheers!!

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031121  2.258   2.319   2.230   2.303      7,922    Sideway
20031127  2.317   2.350   2.277   2.312      6,830    Bullish
20031128  2.300   2.350   2.275   2.327      9,468    Bullish
20031201  2.353   2.419   2.339   2.397     12,153    Bullish
20031202  2.404   2.438   2.364   2.399     11,958    Bullish->Sideway


Anticipate!!!

When the market went too high too fast, expect it to pullback. Protect yourself enough not incurr too much loss, but embrace risk enough not to lose opportunity.

Market seems to go sideway albeit the bullish trend compared to the previous day. Just be patience and calm. You'll make better decision that way...

[ Last edited by Nora_Ismail on 3-12-2003 at 09:42 AM ]

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031127  2.317   2.350   2.277   2.312      6,830    Bullish
20031128  2.300   2.350   2.275   2.327      9,468    Bullish
20031201  2.353   2.419   2.339   2.397     12,153    Bullish
20031202  2.404   2.438   2.364   2.399     11,958    Bullish->Sideway
20031203  2.369   2.396   2.338   2.369      7,966    Bearish->Sideway


Is this pullback the beginning of a sideway market? I dunno. But a market that goes too high too fast will definately got hit by profit taker, me included...

What I like about this pullback is its low volume. If the market keep bearish with lowering volume, what I'll do next is to wait for "Nice Spring Day" - long white candle at the end of this pullback... as the sign of enterence...


Cheers!

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031128  2.300   2.350   2.275   2.327      9,468    Bullish
20031201  2.353   2.419   2.339   2.397     12,153    Bullish
20031202  2.404   2.438   2.364   2.399     11,958    Bullish->Sideway
20031203  2.369   2.396   2.338   2.369      7,966    Bearish->Sideway
20031204  2.363   2.384   2.327   2.355      8,025    Bearish


I don't like the way the market moves yesterday. I liquidified everything, and see for sign of next enterence....

... but.... it may just be me....   


Cheers!

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031202  2.404   2.438   2.364   2.399     11,958    Bullish->Sideway
20031203  2.369   2.396   2.338   2.369      7,966    Bearish->Sideway
20031204  2.363   2.384   2.327   2.355      8,025    Bearish
20031205  2.356   2.388   2.333   2.364      12,518   Sideway->Bullish
20031208  2.381   2.407   2.344   2.374      10,270    Bullish


I don't trust things that I can't explain. The market seems to show an early sign of bullishness. However, the past week did reeal how the market can make a sudden turn.

What I'm looking after for today (Tuesday) is a continuous bullishness, better if the average volume be greater to that of last Friday. For the time being, I won't rush myself into the market....

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031203  2.369   2.396   2.338   2.369      7,966    Bearish->Sideway
20031204  2.363   2.384   2.327   2.355      8,025    Bearish
20031205  2.356   2.388   2.333   2.364      12,518   Sideway->Bullish
20031208  2.381   2.407   2.344   2.374      10,270    Bullish
20031209  2.365   2.399   2.339   2.371      12,184    Sideway->Bullish


The market still seems to move sideway. Still a lot of confusion. Signs of bullishness still visible. Will this young bull finally stand up and run? Dunno... Still have to wait and see... from the sideline.

Cheers!

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031204  2.363   2.384   2.327   2.355      8,025    Bearish
20031205  2.356   2.388   2.333   2.364      12,518   Sideway->Bullish
20031208  2.381   2.407   2.344   2.374      10,270   Bullish
20031209  2.365   2.399   2.339   2.371      12,184    Sideway->Bullish
20031210  2.381   2.414   2.352   2.385      12,162   Bullish   



Slowly... carefully... this bull seems to move up. How long will it last this time? Dunno... But that the risk we have to face, right? An uncalculated risk is an unkown risk. Calculate your risk, and understand how much you are ready to take it...

I planned to enter today (Thursday). Wish me luck!!

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031205  2.356   2.388   2.333   2.364      12,518   Sideway->Bullish
20031208  2.381   2.407   2.344   2.374      10,270   Bullish
20031209  2.365   2.399   2.339   2.371      12,184    Sideway->Bullish
20031210  2.381   2.414   2.352   2.385      12,162   Bullish   
20031211  2.368   2.389   2.322   2.354      12,336   Bearish->Sideway


Who kill that bull? !@#$%^&

Shaken? That's OK... Stirred? Uh oh... One of the golden rule that I adhered for a very long time is that, it's OK to Sell during the amateur hour, but never Buy during that period. Well...

Back to the market. The bull is struggling. CI did shows a steady uptrend during the afternoon session, but looking at NI, the uptrend is not impressive at all. Chances is that the CI component was heavily supported, but the rest of the market did not follow.

So, what to do next? Back to the sideline laa... Will have to see if the NI is going to follow the CI afternoon's uptrend or to reject it....

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031208  2.381   2.407   2.344   2.374      10,270   Bullish
20031209  2.365   2.399   2.339   2.371      12,184    Sideway->Bullish
20031210  2.381   2.414   2.352   2.385      12,162   Bullish   
20031211  2.368   2.389   2.322   2.354      12,336   Bearish->Sideway
20031212  2.360   2.383   2.329   2.354      11,106   Bearish->Sideway


Friday blues again.... The circus that happended on Thursday put players off from making new commitment, I guess... and agreed.

Market traded at narrower range. We'll see how that developed next week....

That bull?? I turned it into rendang already.... Open house anyone??

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031209  2.365   2.399   2.339   2.371      12,184    Sideway->Bullish
20031210  2.381   2.414   2.352   2.385      12,162   Bullish   
20031211  2.368   2.389   2.322   2.354      12,336   Bearish->Sideway
20031212  2.360   2.383   2.329   2.354      11,106   Bearish->Sideway
20031215  2.353   2.374   2.309   2.333       9,520   Bearish



Have to take a position?

Well, sitting at the sideline *IS* taking a position...

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031210  2.381   2.414   2.352   2.385      12,162   Bullish   
20031211  2.368   2.389   2.322   2.354      12,336   Bearish->Sideway
20031212  2.360   2.383   2.329   2.354      11,106   Bearish->Sideway
20031215  2.353   2.374   2.309   2.333       9,520   Bearish
20031216  2.333   2.349   2.292   2.312       8,941   Bearish


Still bearish, but on a continued lowering volume. Is that good or bad? Good if the volume stays lower and choke the Seller. That's when Buyer comes in for bargain hunting. Bad if the volume picked up, meaning everyone is rushing to the exit at any price.

Continue to eat kuaci at the sideline maaa.... Durian also cannn....

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031211  2.368   2.389   2.322   2.354      12,336   Bearish->Sideway
20031212  2.360   2.383   2.329   2.354      11,106   Bearish->Sideway
20031215  2.353   2.374   2.309   2.333       9,520   Bearish
20031216  2.333   2.349   2.292   2.312       8,941   Bearish
20031217  2.321   2.340   2.251   2.281       9,974   Bearish


Am I going to tell you what you don't already know? ... I don't think so...

Am I going to suggest things that you most probably already did? ... Well....

So what am I doing here? Hmmm.... The volume seems to bounced up with price continued south. That not a good sign for the market. However, it will eventually reach a bottom. That's when our wait will be paid off, right?

Happy waiting...!

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031212  2.360   2.383   2.329   2.354      11,106   Bearish->Sideway
20031215  2.353   2.374   2.309   2.333       9,520   Bearish
20031216  2.333   2.349   2.292   2.312       8,941   Bearish
20031217  2.321   2.340   2.251   2.281       9,974   Bearish
20031218  2.282   2.300   2.226   2.253       8,727   Bearish


If we were trekking down in a mountaneous thick jungle, how do we know that we already reach the valley?

1. When we see a river
2. When we no longer decending
3. When we found out that we start ascending

Well... in this mountaneous thick jungle of KLSE, I still find it decending, suggesting that we had not reach the valley yet....

Can anyone hear any sound from a flowing river? Sometime, something that sound so near can be quite far... But I know I'm there when I see it...

Cheers!

[ Last edited by Nora_Ismail on 19-12-2003 at 09:11 AM ]

Maldini

Nora.
I think it hit the target, time to see a rebound unless it break 760..

[ Last edited by Maldini on 19-12-2003 at 10:25 AM ]