Harga minyak dunia kekal rendah sehingga 2020

Acong

Saudi Arabia may go broke before the US oil industry buckles
August 6, 2015 - 7:41PM
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard



King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud Photo: Andrew Harnik/Reuters

If the oil futures market is correct, Saudi Arabia will start running into trouble within two years. It will be in existential crisis by the end of the decade.

The contract price of US crude oil for delivery in December 2020 is currently $US62.05, implying a drastic change in the economic landscape for the Middle East and the petro-rentier states.

The Saudis took a huge gamble last November when they stopped supporting prices and opted instead to flood the market and drive out rivals, boosting their own output to 10.6 million barrels a day (b/d) into the teeth of the downturn.

Bank of America says OPEC is now "effectively dissolved". The cartel might as well shut down its offices in Vienna to save money.

If the aim was to choke the US shale industry, the Saudis have misjudged badly, just as they misjudged the growing shale threat at every stage for eight years. "It is becoming apparent that non-OPEC producers are not as responsive to low oil prices as had been thought, at least in the short-run," said the Saudi central bank in its latest stability report.

"The main impact has been to cut back on developmental drilling of new oil wells, rather than slowing the flow of oil from existing wells. This requires more patience," it said.

One Saudi expert was blunter. "The policy hasn't worked and it will never work," he said.

By causing the oil price to crash, the Saudis and their Gulf allies have certainly killed off prospects for a raft of high-cost ventures in the Russian Arctic, the Gulf of Mexico, the deep waters of the mid-Atlantic, and the Canadian tar sands.

Consultants Wood Mackenzie say the major oil and gas companies have shelved 46 large projects, deferring $US200 billion ($272 billion) of investments.

The problem for the Saudis is that US shale frackers are not high-cost. They are mostly mid-cost, and as I reported from the CERAWeek energy forum in Houston, experts at IHS think shale companies may be able to shave those costs by 45 per cent this year - and not only by switching tactically to high-yielding wells.

Advanced pad drilling techniques allow frackers to launch five or ten wells in different directions from the same site. Smart drill-bits with computer chips can seek out cracks in the rock. New dissolvable plugs promise to save $US300,000 a well. "We've driven down drilling costs by 50 per cent, and we can see another 30 per cent ahead," said John Hess, head of the Hess Corporation.

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apa kesan pd negara kita? 26% pendapatan negara adalah drpd cukai Petronas  

ultra78

Padan muka kepada malaysia sebab yakin sangat harga minyak kekal tinggi suatu ketika dahulu.

AbukRokok

jahat saudi ni....dia punya pasal byk negara pengeluar minyak lain hampir muflis ....

AbukRokok

ni semua rapizi punya pasal

protonpersona

arab saudi menderma pada penduduk dunia.

Acong

apa susah? suh kerajaan naik GST jadik 8%

imransulaiman

Kan dah turun untuk Ogos ni...

all4rez

Padan muka pada semua negara pengeluar termasuk Mesia...

Acong

@Maideen.    agak2 mahfuz ada terbaca isu nie tak?   

mbhcsf

so, actually selain Shell, syarikat mana lagi yg berkaitan industri oil and gas ni  terkesan teruk dengan penurunan harga minyak dunia? banyakkah pengangguran dari syarikat ni ? apa nak jadi pada engineers yg offshore  yg bekerja di any MNC abroad?

DARSITA

walaupun rega gas turun di pasaran dunia .. rega gas di station gas (USA) tetap naik tiap.

sofiazara

efeknye nilai currency negara2 turun

gaara_X

yak....naik GST tue.....ahaks!!

oranjes

Padan muka si arab... tamak sgt.mentang la kos pengeluaran dia kecik dia boost production smpi market flood harga jatuh. tu pun org nk agungkan lg

oranjes

Padan muka si arab... tamak sgt.mentang la kos pengeluaran dia kecik dia boost production smpi market flood harga jatuh. tu pun org nk agungkan lg

sayang_mulut

kalau theol go broke.. kurang la satu country dari timur tengah nak derma

ResellerMaxis

sayang_mulut replied at 12-8-2015 01:26 PM
kalau theol go broke.. kurang la satu country dari timur tengah nak derma

dia akan broke kalau harga minyak naik..sebab dia dah sign contract jual minyak dengan harga 60 usd ++ sehingga 2020..so apa pun terjadi..dia akan pastikan harga minyak dunia bawah paras tu..so dia untung dan negara lain rugi..

page_up

minyak kat malaysia je yg naik manjang. puiii