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[Dunia]
Dunia 'terlebih minyak' menjelang 2030
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Dunia 'terlebih minyak' menjelang 2030 - IEA
AFP
June 14, 2024 @ 12:39pm
Pelantar minyak Petronas di Tangga Barat, Terengganu. - Foto ihsan PETRONAS
PARIS: Dunia berkemungkinan mempunyai lebihan minyak yang besar menjelang 2030 apabila pengeluaran meningkat, manakala peralihan tenaga bersih meredakan permintaan.
Menurut Agensi Tenaga Antarabangsa (IEA) dalam laporan tahunan, permintaan global dijangka berada pada tahap 106 juta tong sehari (bpd) menjelang akhir dekad ini, manakala kapasiti bekalan keseluruhan boleh mencapai 114 juta bpd.
Ini akan mengakibatkan lebihan mengejutkan sebanyak lapan bpd yang perlu disediakan oleh pasaran minyak, kata agensi yang berpangkalan di Paris itu.
"Memandangkan lantunan semula pandemik semakin reda, peralihan tenaga bersih semakin maju, struktur ekonomi China berubah, pertumbuhan permintaan minyak global semakin perlahan dan dijangka mencapai kemuncaknya menjelang 2030.
"Syarikat minyak mungkin mahu memastikan strategi dan rancangan perniagaan mereka disediakan untuk perubahan yang berlaku," kata Pengarah Eksekutif IEA, Fatih Birol.
Jangkaan itu dibuat beberapa hari selepas kumpulan OPEC+ iaitu pengeluar minyak mentah utama memberi isyarat bahawa ia akan mula beralih daripada pengurangan pengeluaran pada musim luruh (antara September hingga November), yang dilaksanakan dalam usaha menyokong harga terhadap kebimbangan permintaan dunia yang lemah.
Dalam laporannya, IEA menyatakan, negara Asia yang pesat membangun seperti China dan India, bersama-sama dengan sektor penerbangan dan petrokimia masih akan memacu permintaan minyak, yang berjumlah 102 juta bdp pada 2023.
Bagaimanapun peralihan ke arah kereta elektrik bersama dengan peningkatan kecekapan bahan api untuk kenderaan konvensional, dan penurunan penggunaan minyak oleh negara Asia Barat untuk pengeluaran elektrik, akan membantu mengehadkan peningkatan permintaan keseluruhan kepada sekitar empat peratus menjelang 2030.
Dalam pada itu, IEA berkata, permintaan dalam ekonomi maju dijangka meneruskan penurunan selama beberapa dekad, turun daripada 46 juta bdp pada 2023 kepada kurang 43 juta bdp pada 2030 - yang terendah sejak 1991, selain semasa wabak.
Pada masa sama, kapasiti pengeluaran minyak nampaknya akan meningkat, diterajui oleh Amerika Syarikat (AS) dan negara-negara lain di Amerika, membawa kepada ramalan lebihan lapan juta tong yang mana tahap yang dicapai hanya semasa penularan COVID-19 pada 2020.
Dalam laporan bulanan berasingan mengenai pasaran minyak global, IEA mengurangkan unjuran pertumbuhan permintaan untuk 2024 kepada 960,000 bpd berbanding 1.1 juta bpd dalam tinjauan sebelumnya.
Jangkaannya untuk 2025 juga diturunkan kepada satu juta bpd daripada 1.2 juta bpd dalam laporan Mei.
https://www.bharian.com.my/dunia ... -menjelang-2030-iea |
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IEA: Dunia Bakal Terlebih Minyak Menjelang 2030
June 15, 2024 - 1:38 PM
Hizam Jaafar
Walaupun kenderaan EV mula mendapat tempat di kalangan pengguna global, masih ramai juga yang tetap mahu guna kenderaan yang dikuasakan oleh enjin pembakaran dalaman dan menggunakan bahan api fosil seperti petrol atau diesel.
Para peminat kereta konvensional bakal menyambut berita terkini dengan gembira apabila dilaporkan dunia berkemungkinan mempunyai lebihan minyak yang besar menjelang 2030 dek kerana pengeluaran meningkat, manakala peralihan tenaga bersih meredakan permintaan.
Sumber Gambar: The Guardian
Menerusi laporan Agensi Tenaga Antarabangsa (IEA), kapasiti bekalan minyak dunia dijangka meningkat kepada 114 juta tong sehari menjelang 2030.
Bagaimanapun, permintaan minyak global dijangka hanya berada pada tahap 106 juta tong sehari menjelang akhir dekad ini. Ekoran situasi tersebut, pasaran perlu bersedia dengan lebihan bekalan minyak dunia sebanyak 8 juta tong sehari.
“Memandangkan lantunan semula pandemik semakin mereda, peralihan tenaga bersih semakin maju, struktur ekonomi China berubah, pertumbuhan permintaan minyak global semakin perlahan dan dijangka mencapai kemuncaknya menjelang 2030.
“Syarikat minyak mungkin mahu memastikan strategi dan rancangan perniagaan mereka disediakan untuk perubahan yang berlaku,” kata pengarah eksekutif IEA, Fatih Birol.
Menurut AFP, jangkaan IEA itu muncul selepas kumpulan pengeluar minyak utama dunia, OPEC+ memberi isyarat bahawa mereka akan merungkai semula pengurangan pengeluaran bermula musim luruh nanti.
Menurut Harian Metro lagi, IEA menyatakan, negara-negara Asia yang pesat membangun seperti China dan India, bersama-sama dengan sektor penerbangan dan petrokimia masih akan memacu permintaan minyak, yang berjumlah 102 juta bdp pada 2023.
Bagaimanapun, peralihan ke arah kereta elektrik bersama dengan peningkatan kecekapan bahan api untuk kenderaan konvensional, dan penurunan penggunaan minyak oleh negara Timur Tengah untuk pengeluaran elektrik.
Perkara ini bakal membantu mengehadkan peningkatan permintaan keseluruhan kepada sekitar empat peratus menjelang 2030. Ramalannya untuk 2025 juga diturunkan kepada satu juta bpd daripada 1.2 juta bpd dalam laporan bulan Mei
https://thevocket.com/iea-dunia- ... yak-menjelang-2030/ |
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tetap jugak NAK naik rega minyak...nanti bangla pi seludup(sambil guling atas jln). |
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FINANCE - OIL
We’ll soon live in a world with a ‘staggering’ excess of oil that we can’t fully use, global energy watchdog IEA warns
BY PRARTHANA PRAKASH
June 13, 2024, 6:34 PM GMT+8
person holding a bottle of crude oil
Oil demand will peak and then plateau by 2030, IEA finds.
CARLOS GARCIA GRANTHON—FOTOHOLICA PRESS/LIGHTROCKET VIA GETTY IMAGES
Oil demand has been on a roller-coaster ride over the last five years due to a global pandemic, wars, and other economic pressures.
That’s happened against a backdrop of the U.S. ramping up shale production, countries tightly controlling how much oil is released, and the world transitioning to alternative energy sources.
All these factors will culminate in a “staggering” excess of oil by 2030 that will far outstrip demand, Paris-based global energy watchdog International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in a report on Wednesday.
Oil demand will gradually slow, hitting its peak by 2029 and plateauing after that. The IEA anticipates the oil supply hitting 114 million barrels a day by the end of the decade—roughly 8 million barrels a day higher than demand.
“This would result in levels of spare capacity never seen before other than at the height of the COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020,” the IEA said.
“Such a massive oil production buffer could usher in a lower oil price environment, posing tough challenges for producers in the US shale patch and the OPEC+ bloc.”
Contending with electrification
Although supply will outstrip demand in the next couple of years, oil demand will still be slightly higher in 2030 compared to current levels, thanks to a strong appetite from Asian markets like India and China.
“By contrast, oil demand in advanced economies is expected to continue its decades-long decline,” the report said, adding that the only other exception to when demand was as low was in 1991 when major events like the Gulf War and the Soviet Union’s dissolution took place. Advanced economies will see oil demand decline by 3 million barrels a day from now to 2030.
Even economies with relatively higher oil consumption will have to contend with the growing presence of electric vehicles and energy-efficiency methods that aim to cut or offset carbon emissions.
The IEA predicted last year that fossil fuels were at “the beginning of the end” as a shift in the energy industry was underway. The energy agency warned that demand forecasts in its latest report were subject to economic volatility, changes in the pace of EV adoption, and more.
Pricing oil also varies a lot—earlier this week, both oil indexes, Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate, rose amid reports that oil production would climb later this year. Summer is expected to bring greater oil demand, although uncertainties, such as with interest rates, still figure into how the commodity is priced.
However, overall, deceleration in demand will dominate what happens to the oil industry in the future.
The gap in demand and supply will impact the stronghold of the OPEC+ alliance, which comprises the world’s major oil producers and its allies. The group, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, has watched over oil output for years as a way to temper prices. Higher oil prices are more lucrative for economies, including Russia, that rely on oil exports to fill their coffers.
Shrinking demand will create a “massive cushion” and shake up how OPEC+ approaches its strategy on oil production moving forward, the IEA said. That’ll also mean the group’s share of oil output will slip below 50% from this year onwards, paving the way for other non-OPEC+ members such as Brazil and Norway.
OPEC’s general secretary isn’t so sure that things are on the decline. The IEA’s forecast was “dangerous,” Haitham al-Ghais told the Financial Times Wednesday, and added that if investors stopped pumping money into the oil and gas industry, the resulting “energy chaos” would be “on a potentially unprecedented scale.”
Still, it looks like the sun is indeed setting for fossil fuels—sooner rather than later.
https://fortune.com/europe/2024/ ... watchdog-iea-warns/ |
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The world could soon see a massive oil glut. Here's why.
moneywatch
By Aimee Picchi
Edited By Alain Sherter
June 12, 2024 / 1:13 PM EDT / CBS News
The world could have a glut of oil by the end of the decade because of rising production combined with declining demand as consumers and businesses switch to electric vehicles and renewable energy, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency.
The International Energy Agency said Wednesday that the world's total oil supply capacity is expected to rise to about 114 million barrels a day by 2030, which the group said would amount to "staggering" 8 million barrels a day beyond projected demand.
That type of spare capacity hasn't been seen outside the COVID-19 lockdowns of 2020, when economies across the world shut down as governments sought to stop the spread of the deadly virus, the IEA said. The extra capacity could have "significant consequences for oil markets," ranging from the U.S. to OPEC member nations such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, it added.
"This report's projections, based on the latest data, show a major supply surplus emerging this decade, suggesting that oil companies may want to make sure their business strategies and plans are prepared for the changes taking place," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol in a statement.
Among the drivers for rising oil supplies are expectations that Americans and consumers in other developed nations will continue to shift to electric vehicles. Global sales of EVs could reach 40 million cars in 2030, with almost one in two new cars projected to be an EV at that time, the IEA forecasted.
Could gas prices decline?
It's possible that an oversupply of oil could lead to a "lower price environment," according to the IEA report. However, the analysis includes three projections for where oil prices could be in 2030, ranging from a high of more than $90 a barrel to a low of less than $60 a barrel within six years. Currently, oil is trading at about $82 a barrel.
Still, one expert cautioned against reading too much into the report.
"It's a long-range outlook, so it could be way off, or very close, but I'm a bit more concerned with the slowdown in EV adoption and the tremendous costs for countries adopting EVs," Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told CBS MoneyWatch in an email.
Cheaper gas prices might not materialize by 2030 because some refineries have shut down in the U.S. and Europe, and there are fewer plans to build new facilities given the shift into solar, wind and other renewable energy sources, he added.
"[T]he future is hazy when it comes to this potential impact to gasoline prices," De Haan said. "We'll still need refineries for some time, and if they shut down as the transition occurs, that could lead gas prices higher in the long run."
In the short term, drivers are getting some near-term relief, as gas prices are now dropping across the nation due to weaker demand and lower oil prices. The average price for regular unleaded gas in the U.S. was $3.44 per gallon on Monday, down about 9 cents from a week ago and 14 cents from a year earlier, according to AAA.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gas ... energy-agency-2030/ |
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susah nk percaya. ramalan karut marut bab minyak ni dari dulu timbul tp xdak nk jd pun. sj ja nk wujudkan speculation adala yg akan dpt untung tu dgn adanya speculation mcm ni |
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Betul.. sebab masa ni kelak chatgpt yang berbadan fizikal sudah menakluki dunia |
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itupun kalau EV berjaya, sekarang masih terkial2 lagi |
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Aliaskotonggo replied at 15-6-2024 08:09 PM
itupun kalau EV berjaya, sekarang masih terkial2 lagi
Tak mungkin.. US pun dah uturn on polisi EV |
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Mcm2 usaha puak2 ni cuba hapuskan kebergantungan pada fossil fuel yach...
Sampai tahap cuba membodohkan pengguna |
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sharlenetexas replied at 15-6-2024 03:42 PM
Atau sebaliknya?
Sama mcm i fikir. Media barat ni bkn boleh percaya. Entah2 nk rendahkan harga minyak, diaorang simpan, by 2030, diaorang jual mahal. Dunia plak ingatkan ada lebihan. Kalau x kenapa nk susah payah invade negara org lain |
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green~tea replied at 16-6-2024 02:46 PM
Tak mungkin.. US pun dah uturn on polisi EV
Polisi apa? I tgk EV ni hype lebih. Sbb benda baru. Ujung2 bateri EV pon lg hauk dari pencemaran petrol |
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anony-mous replied at 16-6-2024 03:25 PM
Polisi apa? I tgk EV ni hype lebih. Sbb benda baru. Ujung2 bateri EV pon lg hauk dari pencemaran p ...
Polisi US.. dia dah tarik tax exemption for EV vehicle ownership... and reduced their target outlook by 2032
Source :
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/us-eases-tailpipe-rules-slows-ev-transition-through-2030-2024-03-20/
WASHINGTON, March 20 (Reuters) - The Biden administration on Wednesday slashed its target for U.S. electric vehicle adoption from 67% by 2032 to as little as 35% after industry and autoworker backlash in the political battleground state of Michigan.
The Environmental Protection Agency instead adopted a “technology neutral” regulatory scheme that allows automakers far more freedom to meet emissions standards with gas-electric hybrids, which many environmentalists have opposed as a half-measure that delays the EV transition. The agency also embraced “advanced gasoline” technologies to save fuel, such as turbo-charging, lighter vehicles or stop-start ignition systems.
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Post time 15-6-2024 02:06 PM
变色卡
Author
