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Author: Nora18

Let's talk about the current market...

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Nora18 This user has been deleted
 Author| Post time 28-10-2003 07:51 PM | Show all posts
Originally posted by mrBIG at 2003-10-28 12:01 PM:
:re: Market "SLEEPY" today .. WHUARGHH !! .. Tommorrow ASTRO will be listing .. Hmmmm .. I'm planning to buy it early morning .. Nora what do U think ???  I feel that the price will open  ...



Dunno about ASTRO... your prediction may be right.... just place a right stoploss that if the price goes against you, at least that trade won't be converted into a long term investment.... Good Luck... and Selamat Berpuasa too...

Cheers!
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Nora18 This user has been deleted
 Author| Post time 28-10-2003 09:06 PM | Show all posts
Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031021  2.342   2.377   2.314   2.349     15,213    Bullish
20031022  2.356   2.416   2.338   2.388     16,242    Bullish
20031023  2.388   2.426   2.344   2.389     15,642    Bullish->Sideway
20031027  2.390   2.430   2.359   2.399     15,081    Bullish
20031028  2.405   2.450   2.379   2.423     18,956    Bullish


The market seems to gather the momentum to head for a higher level. The volume retractment on the 27/10 is good as an advance following a retractment may indicate a strong bull push.

Since I had already liquidify all my positions on Monday, I'm looking forward to enter the market tomorrow, targetting for the those counters that experienced some dip during the last couple of days, but supported by good volume.


Cheers!
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Nora18 This user has been deleted
 Author| Post time 29-10-2003 01:43 PM | Show all posts
Originally posted by mrBIG at 2003-10-28 12:01 PM:
:re: Market "SLEEPY" today .. WHUARGHH !! .. Tommorrow ASTRO will be listing .. Hmmmm .. I'm planning to buy it early morning .. Nora what do U think ???  I feel that the price will open  ...



Waaahhh.... Managed to get Astro? Apperently it hit 5.00 too early....

Let's think for a momment... who's the people who bought Astro before 9:15am at 5.00? And who sell it to them?

Think...
Think...
Think...



Cheers!
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Nora18 This user has been deleted
 Author| Post time 30-10-2003 12:29 AM | Show all posts
Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031022  2.356   2.416   2.338   2.388     16,242    Bullish
20031023  2.388   2.426   2.344   2.389     15,642    Bullish->Sideway
20031027  2.390   2.430   2.359   2.399     15,081    Bullish
20031028  2.405   2.450   2.379   2.423     18,956    Bullish
20031029  2.435   2.472   2.393   2.431     18,842    Bullish


Market seems to continue its bullish direction. Well, everyone knows that already.... Except for the tremendous interest shown to new listing counters like Astro, the oldies seems to be traded at higher price with a maintained volume. As long as the volume not declining, I won't be worry so much on the direction of the market.

Didn't managed to get all I want at the price I want.... Continue fishing tomorrow....
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Nora18 This user has been deleted
 Author| Post time 31-10-2003 06:18 AM | Show all posts
Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031023  2.388   2.426   2.344   2.389     15,642    Bullish->Sideway
20031027  2.390   2.430   2.359   2.399     15,081    Bullish
20031028  2.405   2.450   2.379   2.423     18,956    Bullish
20031029  2.435   2.472   2.393   2.431     18,842    Bullish
20031030  2.435   2.481   2.403   2.451     20,171    Bullish


Despite the sliding morning market yesterday, the bear still seems unable to hold ground, while the bull keep charging. The underlaying factors look good. Market was bullish with increased volume.

As usual, I will hold to my positions unless any of the individual's stoploss get hit.  


Cheers!
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Nora18 This user has been deleted
 Author| Post time 31-10-2003 08:59 PM | Show all posts
Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031023  2.388   2.426   2.344   2.389     15,642    Bullish->Sideway
20031027  2.390   2.430   2.359   2.399     15,081    Bullish
20031028  2.405   2.450   2.379   2.423     18,956    Bullish
20031029  2.435   2.472   2.393   2.431     18,842    Bullish
20031030  2.435   2.481   2.403   2.451     20,171    Bullish
20031031  2.456   2.509   2.410   2.447     25,718    Bullish->Sideway


I'm worried, for two reasons. One, NI closed lower. Two, the volume is too high for NI. However, the underlaying factor still bullish for the market. Now, Monday's market play is important to verify whether the market is going to make a U turn or to continue its bullish direction.

As usual, watch them stoploss closely. If you already make paper profit, you may consider to raise your stoploss at least to the break-even level to prevent paper profit to become real loss. That's what I did...


Cheers!
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cariwang This user has been deleted
Post time 31-10-2003 10:09 PM | Show all posts
Originally posted by Nora18 at 31-10-2003 08:59 PM:
Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031023  2.388   2.426   2.344   2.389     15,642    Bullish-& ...



nora saya ni teramat baru disini.seorang kawan email laman ini. dlm thread ini mana satu NI( eg) 31/10/03?

baru ajer seminggu lebih  buka trading ac dgn jupiter.tadi beli mui ,tapi tutup 1/2 cent tinggi . macam mana ni?

mui: rsi 70.2

volume 5 hari memang tinggi. tapi dah touch bub (bolinger) nampak macam nak sideway saja. ini semua diterangkan oleh remisier saya siang tadi.susah juga nak faham.

saya amat berminat dgn kaedah cik nora,bolehkah  saya  belajardari cik nora?


tolong. gabra jugak first time ni

[ Last edited by cariwang on 31-10-2003 at 10:12 PM ]
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Nora18 This user has been deleted
 Author| Post time 1-11-2003 02:05 AM | Show all posts
Originally posted by cariwang at 2003-10-31 10:09 PM:
nora saya ni teramat baru disini.seorang kawan email laman ini. dlm thread ini mana satu NI( eg) 31/10/03?

baru ajer seminggu lebih  buka trading ac dgn jupiter.tadi beli mui ,tapi tutup 1/2 cen ...



Tahniah kerana berjaya melakukan langkah pertama iaitu membuka akaun, dan langkah kedua, iaitu mula trade.

Nora assume awak maksudkan MUIIND.

Pertama, Date dalam list NI yang Nora biasa paparkan tu, 20031031 tu maknanya 31/10/2003. Raw data dalam file EOD untuk Metastock memang gunakan date dalam format YYYYMMDD.

Kedua, NI atau Nora Index ialah index yang Nora buat untuk mengukur KLSE. Of cause awak boleh gunakan Composite Index untuk tujuan yang sama, tapi Nora membuat kesimpulan tentang keadaan market dengan menggunakan NI. Apa yang awak kena fahami di sini ialah, NI tidak mengukur satu-satu counter.

Strategi yang Nora gunakan ialah, kalau NI menunjukkan yang KLSE bullish, maka Nora akan beli dan simpan. Sebaik sahaja ada tanda-tanda yang KLSE akan buat U-turn, Nora akan jual kalau dah capai target profit.

Ketiga, pada ketika ini, ada 300+ counter untuk mengira NI. Tapi Nora cuma perhatikan 12 counter sahaja secara harian. Kenapa 12? Sebab Nora perlu faham tabiat counter yang Nora nak trade. Kalau terlalu banyak, Nora mungkin akan cuma main tembak jer. Dan MUIIND tidak termasuk dalam 12 counter Nora....

Anyway, meh Nora cuba komen pasal MUIIND sikit. Hari Isnin lepas, MUIIND traded 165,000+ lots, dan pada hari Selasa, harganya melonjak sehingga 0.395. Minggu lepas, MUIIND traded dalam lingkungan 0.28-0.30.... Ada beberapa perkara yang pasti telah berlaku:

1. Orang yang beli MUIIND pada harga 0.28-0.30, dah ambik kesempatan jual pada hari Isnin~Jumaat. Bila harga melompat macam ni, ramai yang akan ambik keuntungan segera (profit taking)

2. Orang yang beli MUIIND pada hari Isnin semasa harga melambung, akan terpaksa jual pada hari Jumaat sebab T+4 force-sell. Kalau Nora nak beli MUIIND, Nora akan tunggu 4pm ~ 4:45pm untuk beli, sebab masa tu lah ramai yang akan kena force sell, so kita akan dapat saham tu dengan harga yang agak murah.

Taaaaapi... Nora tak akan beli MUIIND hari Jumaat. Bila beli, Nora tak akan beli kalau harganya dah jauh melepasi 14d-EMA. Dalam trading, ada satu istilah yang dipanggil "Chasing stock", iaitu bila kita terlalu ingin beli suatu stock yang harganya semakin meningkat. Tapi akhirnya kita terbeli pada harga yang paling tinggi....

Nora ada beberapa soalan untuk awak tentang trade ni. Tujuan Nora tanya ialah supaya awak dapat belajar dari trade ni:

1. Kenapa awak pilih untuk beli MUIIND? Tarikan volume yang tinggi dan harga yang tiba-tiba tinggi? Tip dari kawan? RSI?

2. Masa awak beli, berapa tinggi awak rasa harga MUIIND boleh pergi?

3. Kalau MUIIND jatuh, pada harga berapa yang awak akan sanggup jual dengan rugi.

4. Adakah awak harap dapat jual dalam T+3?


Cheers!

[ Last edited by Nora18 on 1-11-2003 at 02:21 AM ]
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cariwang This user has been deleted
Post time 3-11-2003 09:08 PM | Show all posts
betullah nora.hari ini muiind jatuh!.harap esok boleh lari.

ok.sebenarnya saya beli ikut nasihat remisier yg baru saya kenal.macam2 istilah yg dia pakai.saya naik pening. bagaimanapun saya sedang belajar sekarang.mungkin beberapa minggu lagi ilmu saya akan bertambah.
macam mana nak kira bull dan bear index? kalau tak keberatan tolong explain.
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Nora18 This user has been deleted
 Author| Post time 4-11-2003 09:20 AM | Show all posts
Originally posted by cariwang at 2003-11-3 09:08 PM:
betullah nora.hari ini muiind jatuh!.harap esok boleh lari.

ok.sebenarnya saya beli ikut nasihat remisier yg baru saya kenal.macam2 istilah yg dia pakai.saya naik pening. bagaimanapun saya sedan ...



Well, Nora tak pernah terima sebarang tips dari remeiser, dan remeiser Nora tahu yang Nora memang tak nak terima tips dari dia. Pada Nora, it's OK untuk terima tips, tapi kita kena check betul-betul sama-ada tips tu OK atau tak. Untuk check tips, kita kena ada trading system kita sendiri, yang kita boleh gunakan untuk test sebarang counter.

Awak pernah guna Metastock untuk tengok chart? Walaupun Nora dah tak guna Metastock untuk trade, tapi Nora rasa awak patut belajar dari situ dulu. Metastock ialah satu software yang kita boleh guna untuk buat chart untuk apa-apa counter kat KLSE. Kita boleh apply apa-apa indicator (RSI, EMA, MFI, etc) and lihat sama ada sesuatu stock tu OK atau tak. Perlu Nora tekankan yang charts saja tak memadai untuk menjadi trader yang baik.

Nora tak pasti apa yang maksudkan dengan Bull & Bear index. Mungkin awak refer salah satu indicator yang awak boleh dapat kat Metastock. But firstly, do you know what those indeces are for?

Cheers!
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Nora18 This user has been deleted
 Author| Post time 4-11-2003 09:21 AM | Show all posts
Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031028  2.405   2.450   2.379   2.423     18,956    Bullish
20031029  2.435   2.472   2.393   2.431     18,842    Bullish
20031030  2.435   2.481   2.403   2.451     20,171    Bullish
20031031  2.456   2.509   2.410   2.447     25,718    Bullish->Sideway
20031027  2.451   2.498   2.411   2.452     14,074    Sideway->bearish


Play safe if you can.....

Play the risk if you want. And I want to play risk because both of my positions are above Breakeven. So the risk I'm gonna take is only down to the breakeven level, that these trade won't become a loss. The reason I'm willing to take this risk is because Yesterday's support level was still not broken.

Risk taking doesn't mean you'll let your trade floats as it wishes, go wherever it wants to go. Stoploss is still a must, as that denote the maximum level of risk you are willing to take.

Cheers!
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mrBIG This user has been deleted
Post time 4-11-2003 04:23 PM | Show all posts

Me and My ASTRO .. Huk !! huk !!

Hi Nora .. me again .. :re::re:

:stp:Hmm .. not doing good with my ASTRO ...
You are very generous to share with all of us on how to manage the risk when entering share trading .. thanks again !!!

Hmm .. got a few question :-
a) When you calculate NI , after you pre-picked 12 counters
    High Column : SUM(High Amt  12 counter ) / 12
    Low Column : SUM(Low Amt  12 counter ) / 12

b) How you determine wheather it bullish , bearish or sideway base on your NI .. is it by looking the LDone Amount ??

c) He he .. how you set your StopLoss .. This very important right know
because I don't know when to stop ..when the price going down
Ooo ASTRO .. Please go Up Up And The Way !!!!!!!! :bg:
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Nora18 This user has been deleted
 Author| Post time 4-11-2003 05:31 PM | Show all posts
Originally posted by mrBIG at 4-11-2003 04:23 PM:
Hi Nora .. me again .. :re::re:

:stp:Hmm .. not doing good with my ASTRO ...
You are very generous to share with all of us on how to manage the risk when entering share trading .. thanks again ...



a) yup, NI is just the average of O H L C V of all counters in your private index. However, the originator of that idea suggest to have a big enough numbers. Currently, NI averaged 300+ counters. I did 70+ before, which is OK too.

If you missed the previous link on how NI looks like in my spreadsheet, here it is: http://nora_ismail.tripod.com/NoraIndex.htm

b) Hmmm... I just share this with another forumners in other forum. Take a look at this link --> http://nora_ismail.tripod.com/NoraIndex0910.htm

Legends:

Intraday Bull = High - Close
Intraday Bear = Close - Low
Intraday Sideway = Close - Open
Intraday Bullness = Intraday Bear - Intraday Bull + Intraday Sideway

1-day Diff is Bull when O H L C today all higher than yesterday's
1-day Diff is Bear when O H L C today all lower than yesterday's
1-day Diff is Sideway when O H L C has mixed lower and higher than yesterday's

2-day Diff is same as 1-day Diff, except that I compare today's to the day before yesterday's


c. On the stoploss, urgh... it is a long discussion on its own... Let me see if I can make it simple...

Fill in these blanks:

1. Your total amount of money in your trust account: _________
2. 1% of #1 : _______
3. Taking fees into consideration, the price you can sell ASTRO so that you won't risk more than #2: ________


This 1% rule may be too high or too low for you. Some writers suggest 2%, and request you to stop trading for the month if your accumulated loss exceed 6%. Bottom line, adjust this percentage, but not to exceed 2%...

Other people I know used this... his stoploss is always 5 ticks below his Buy price. That's the easiest way of setting a stoploss.

When the price goes up, you may adjust your stoploss upward to lock profit. However, NEVER lower your stoploss!! Very important that one. For me, I never put a Buy order until I calculate and know where my stoploss is...


Cheers!!
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Nora18 This user has been deleted
 Author| Post time 4-11-2003 08:08 PM | Show all posts
Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031029  2.435   2.472   2.393   2.431     18,842    Bullish
20031030  2.435   2.481   2.403   2.451     20,171    Bullish
20031031  2.456   2.509   2.410   2.447     25,718    Bullish->Sideway
20031103  2.451   2.498   2.411   2.452     14,074    Sideway->bearish
20031104  2.457   2.521   2.434   2.484     18,448    Sideway->Bullish


Bullish trend to resume? I personally think so....

The circus act of the market since the beginning of the week may be there to serve a purpose - shakeouts. If that is so, it may continue to happend till last Thursday/Friday's T+4, which is Wed/Thur this week.

For me, my stoplosses are still holding, and NI looks fine. Keep watching the stoplosses and any sign of distributions.... Sell on strength if possible....


Cheers!
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gigi kuning This user has been deleted
Post time 6-11-2003 09:58 AM | Show all posts

hi nora

saya bukan nak bangga, tapi tips scomi yg kawan saya bagi mmg menjadi la
saya teringin gak nak belajo guna NI, tapi tak berapa paham la nora

saya selalu beli ikut tips kengkawan aje walaupon saya ni remisier terlampau
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Nora18 This user has been deleted
 Author| Post time 6-11-2003 02:33 PM | Show all posts
Originally posted by gigi kuning at 6-11-2003 09:58 AM:
saya bukan nak bangga, tapi tips scomi yg kawan saya bagi mmg menjadi la
saya teringin gak nak belajo guna NI, tapi tak berapa paham la nora

saya selalu beli ikut tips kengkawan aje walaupon sa ...



Ada perbezaan antara "tips" dengan "insider information". Kalau nora ada kawan yang kerja kat mana-mana institutional investing firm, dan dia bagi tahu Nora yang di tengah deal nak beli 1 million share company XXX at the open market... well, of cause Nora tidak akan dismiss info tu.

Tapi, macam mana kalau Nora ada accumulate 20,000 lots of company YYY, kemudian buat rumour around and sebar tips yang counter YYY tu akan naik, hanya untuk dumpkan semua saham YYY Nora pada harga yang lebih baik. Ini yang banyak berlaku... Dan jangan terkejut yang market guru pun ada buat kerja macam ni...

Bila Nora terima apa-apa tips yang bagus, Nora akan test tips tu dengan trading system yang Nora guna. So, bila Nora decide nak beli, ia bukanlah semata-mata sebab tips, tapi dah terbukti yang memang tips tu boleh pakai. Kalau trade tu tak menjadi, bukan salah orang yang bagi tips, tapi salah Nora sendiri.

Anyway, congrats on your scomi. I sincerely hope you can repeat that success in all your future tradings... But one things that I've learnt all these times, that is to forget your winning trades... fast...! Winnings affect traders in a special way. It make us feel good. It makes us think that we beat the market, and that we had conquer the skill of share trading. It makes us trigger happy, and makes us want to trade more and more. Though the feeling is good, it is dangerous to us traders. When win a trade, a small pat on the back is enough, or treat yourself with teh tarik... maybe with ginger this time... forget that winning trade and move on to your next...

Happy trading!



Cheers!
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gigi kuning This user has been deleted
Post time 6-11-2003 03:20 PM | Show all posts

thanks for your advice nora

skang ni saya tgh gigil pasal takde apa2 position, ialah scomi kan suspended.......adala tinggal 5 bijik..............2 haritu pick up @ 11.20, semalam beli lagi 3 @ 14.20
nampak cam good news aje...................harap2 berjayalah saya ni
every wednesday mmg ada sorang analysist dtg kat sini bagi talk n tips...........kebanyakkannya menjadi la...............
nora kenal tak ngan ome?
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Nora18 This user has been deleted
 Author| Post time 6-11-2003 04:49 PM | Show all posts
Originally posted by gigi kuning at 6-11-2003 03:20 PM:
skang ni saya tgh gigil pasal takde apa2 position, ialah scomi kan suspended.......adala tinggal 5 bijik..............2 haritu pick up @ 11.20, semalam beli lagi 3 @ 14.20
nampak cam good news aje ...



Ome... tak kenal ler...

Maybe, awak boleh tanya dia, macam mana dia conclude pasal Scomi tu... adakah melalui technical analysis, atau insider information... Maybe dia jugak kena bagi tahu awak, dalam keadaan macam mana awak kena lari cepat-cepat. Ye lah, kalau scomi jatuh, tak kan awak nak tunggu sampai dapat jumpa dia untuk dapatkan nasihat...


Good luck!
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gigi kuning This user has been deleted
Post time 7-11-2003 08:28 AM | Show all posts
Originally posted by Nora18 at 2003-11-6 04:49 PM:
Ome... tak kenal ler...

Maybe, awak boleh tanya dia, macam mana dia conclude pasal Scomi tu... adakah melalui technical analysis, atau insider information... Maybe dia jugak kena bagi tahu a ...



scomi ni bukan ome yg bagi tapi my pren yg operate utk syndicate. pastu udin punya sec. pon ada kata suruh tangkap lagi
tu yg saya konpiden giler tu
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Nora18 This user has been deleted
 Author| Post time 7-11-2003 08:54 AM | Show all posts
Originally posted by gigi kuning at 2003-11-7 08:28 AM:
scomi ni bukan ome yg bagi tapi my pren yg operate utk syndicate. pastu udin punya sec. pon ada kata suruh tangkap lagi
tu yg saya konpiden giler tu



Yup... No analysis can beat an insider information....


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