Let's talk about the current market...

Originally posted by Maldini at 19-12-2003 10:22 AM:
Nora.
I think it hit the target, time to see a rebound unless it break 760..

Well Maldini, like Mr Livermore said, there is no bull side or bear side to the market, but only the right side....

Let's hope we are on the right side...


Cheers and good luck!

Maldini

Originally posted by Nora_Ismail at 19-12-2003 10:58 AM:
Well Maldini, like Mr Livermore said, there is no bull side or bear side to the market, but only the right side....

Let's hope we are on the right side...


Cheers and good luck!

Maldini

tell me when u're in..hehe

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031215  2.337   2.358   2.291   2.316       9,861   Bearish
20031216  2.322   2.338   2.279   2.301       9,413   Bearish
20031217  2.303   2.323   2.233   2.264      10,250   Bearish
20031218  2.264   2.283   2.207   2.235       8,918   Bearish
20031219  2.213   2.240   2.183   2.213       6,888   Bearish


Reindex time again... Anyway, still bearish... just wait....

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031216  2.322   2.338   2.279   2.301       9,413   Bearish
20031217  2.303   2.323   2.233   2.264      10,250   Bearish
20031218  2.264   2.283   2.207   2.235       8,918   Bearish
20031219  2.213   2.240   2.183   2.213       6,888   Bearish
20031222  2.218   2.242   2.191   2.222       5,805   Consolidate->Bullish


The volume.... may I say... pathetic! And the principle of Tape Reading says that, with a volume like that, it is unlikely that you can be positive about the direction of the market. It'll be like... hmmmm... kites without air... trees without soils... dirty laundries without water... Nicky without Tommy ... yuck!  :p   :p   :p

to quote my favourite rock singer; 'you dont need a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing......'
I'll not consider the current mkt as bull mkt unless it beat the 850 level no matter what they are now predicting. I have been following our mkt since 1999 and come end of the year the bull talk is every where in the news print. This year is no exception. Well will the 850 be broken this year? Who knows. And I will not even try to predict it. It will be a waste of time and energy because I'm no expert in economics, world finance, and so on and so forth. Better leave the job to someone like G soros.

So if you cannot be a leader of the mkt then be a good follower. So IMO the only way to make money in the stock mkt is either be a well discipline swing trader or invest your money in some good companies as a long term investment.(unless you have the privillege to trade on inside info) Well if you pick the second choice you will eventually get the return but will miss all the excitement.

To be a good swing trader you need the skill, knowledge and experience. Unless you do, dont call your dealer. All the money the fool and the ignorant lost in the stock mkt enough to finance that double tracking much talk about project.

Pick some active stock which are widely follow and swing on them or Otherwise just trade the KLCI futures which needs less capital.

In my experience trade individual stock is much more harder compare to trade in the futures mkt especially the commodity futures because in stocks you all up against the evilful inside trading and syndicate play. Whose money is the syndicates are sucking if not ours. Believe me they will use all the tricks and weapon that are available to make you part with your hard earned money.Stop being a sucker. Use swing trading. Learn the art of it. Only then you can start call your broker.
And one more thing;  the trend is your friend until at the end when it bend.

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031217  2.303   2.323   2.233   2.264      10,250   Bearish
20031218  2.264   2.283   2.207   2.235       8,918   Bearish
20031219  2.213   2.240   2.183   2.213       6,888   Bearish
20031222  2.218   2.242   2.191   2.222       5,805   Consolidate->Bullish
20031223  2.229   2.249   2.196   2.226       7,186   Bullish->Consolidate


The prices look good. The Volume looks healthy.

Hmmm... did I missed something? Why the heck are there more counters making new Low on the 23/12 compared to the previous day? That's not good...

I'll stay aside first.... see what happend by the end of the day...

Originally posted by kuti at 23-12-2003 11:42 PM:
to quote my favourite rock singer; 'you dont need a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing......'
I'll not consider the current mkt as bull mkt unless it beat the 850 level no matter what they are now predicting. I have been following our mkt since 1999 and come end of the year the bull talk is every where in the news print. This year is no exception. Well will the 850 be broken this year? Who knows. And I will not even try to predict it. It will be a waste of time and energy because I'm no expert in economics, world finance, and so on and so forth. Better leave the job to someone like G soros.

So if you cannot be a leader of the mkt then be a good follower. So IMO the only way to make money in the stock mkt is either be a well discipline swing trader or invest your money in some good companies as a long term investment.(unless you have the privillege to trade on inside info) Well if you pick the second choice you will eventually get the return but will miss all the excitement.

To be a good swing trader you need the skill, knowledge and experience. Unless you do, dont call your dealer. All the money the fool and the ignorant lost in the stock mkt enough to finance that double tracking much talk about project.

Pick some active stock which are widely follow and swing on them or Otherwise just trade the KLCI futures which needs less capital.

In my experience trade individual stock is much more harder compare to trade in the futures mkt especially the commodity futures because in stocks you all up against the evilful inside trading and syndicate play. Whose money is the syndicates are sucking if not ours. Believe me they will use all the tricks and weapon that are available to make you part with your hard earned money.Stop being a sucker. Use swing trading. Learn the art of it. Only then you can start call your broker.
And one more thing;  the trend is your friend until at the end when it bend.

Well... everyone who knows what wind is and able to point at directions will be able to points the direction of the wind. Unfortunately, most of us don't know what the market is, let alone any sense of direction of where the market is and will be...

I have to disagree that KLSE is in bull market if it breaks 850. What if it breaks 850, go to 900, then make a U-turn to 800 then nose dive to 700? Is that a bull? What if it is 760 and slowly goes up to 850? Is *that* a bull?

When you swing in and out of the market since the beginning of this year, from 640+ earlier the year to 800+ in the recent month, you know you are swinging the bull market. You just have to ensure that you are swinging at the right side of the market. Even in a bull market, there are times when the market turns or just goes flat. That's when you let your dicipline of money management to control you rather than your greed.

In my honest opinion, a new trader have to start somewhere to trade. Trade small, increase the knowledge, sharpen the skill, trade small again, loss small too, increase knowledge again, sharpen the skill even more. There are fees you have to pay in terms of losses, but the fear to start will never get you started forever. I paid that fees and still paying it, no doubt. But the experience moulded by proper knowledge will get you somewhere you'll never be without that first step...

Cheers,
Nora

[ Last edited by Nora_Ismail on 24-12-2003 at 09:19 AM ]

the trend is your friend until at the end when it bend........

A matter of fact; the trend is  my BEST friend. And If I care less about my best friend , what would i become?

If you not certain about the trend of the mkt dont trade. You are losing your best friend, certainly you are at loss.
Trend analysys is not  much different from fundamental analysys in the sense that it is much more difficult the predict  5 years from now as compare to what is going to happen next week or so. I am more concern  about what is the trend for next couple of month than whether the index is going to hit 850 or not this year. So it suit me and possibly most of us to trade the short or medium term trend.

I have done a lot of studies about 'this thing' called trend.[ it is after all my best friend] As we all probably know the one thing that never lie is mathematic. I can conclude that the most important thing about the trend is its angle. And  as if it is a living thing a trend will always adjust its angle during its development. But once  the appropiate/optimum angle is broken the 'once my friend' will become my worst enemy and I am ready to turn my back on it. Having said that, I'm still only human; sometimes but very rarely I give it a second chance to prove its loyalty.

If you trade using the trend as your guidance you will never go wrong. Yes you will lose in some of your trade but if you live by the rule of let your profit run and cut your losses short, only capital will then be your limitation of what you achive from the market.

The only hard part is to tame the puzzle and solving the mystery of market trend. And the best way for IMO to solve the mystery of a trend's angle is to use the sophisticated but well respected ELLIOT wave analysis. And the best way to learn elliot wave is through practical and experimental. Every market has its own characteristic. Once you master it  will certainly become a slave to you.

Though you try your best it never can be guarantee that you'll master the trick. But because the reward is so big, I mean George 'the insane Alchemy of Finance' Soros can make the money  enough to trigger the asian crisis from the currencies mkt, the effort should be worthwhile. Otherwise you will always become a sucker to the big boys. However a deep working knowledge of elliot wave and how to use it to spot a trend could be well enough for you to start to make a living in the financial market.

[ Last edited by kuti on 24-12-2003 at 10:19 PM ]

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031218  2.264   2.283   2.207   2.235       8,918   Bearish
20031219  2.213   2.240   2.183   2.213       6,888   Bearish
20031222  2.218   2.242   2.191   2.222       5,805   Consolidate->Bullish
20031223  2.229   2.249   2.196   2.226       7,186   Bullish->Consolidate
20031224  2.205   2.237   2.189   2.222       5,497   Consolidate


Hmmm.... market still lifeless... Until a direction is clear, there is no way to go but to stay put...

Originally posted by kuti at 24-12-2003 10:17 PM:
the trend is your friend until at the end when it bend........

A matter of fact; the trend is  my BEST friend. And If I care less about my best friend , what would i become?

If you not certa ...

Well, I do have a share of respect to Elliot Wave theory. Simply because, people who use it do make money. And the same respect actually goes to a simpler method like the one used by the Turtles (developed by Richard Dennis). Again, the respect is there simply because people who used it do make money.

In fact, the same share of respect goes to any system that help people make money. Who am I to say which system is better, right? But what I can say for myself is, which of these theory or system will help ME make money.

Each of us is different. What works wonder to some of us may spell disaster to others. The key thing to share trading is to understand oneself, and to understand the system one choose to use. Plan your trade, and trade your plan...

Having said that, if all these different people, with all the different ideas and opinions, put their head together to battle the one thing we called KLSE, we may be able to knock the silly out of it. We don't have to agree or disagree with each other, but as long as we can voice out our opinion freely and accept that others also can do the same, we can benefit from each other.


Cheers!

[ Last edited by Nora_Ismail on 26-12-2003 at 05:05 PM ]

Enough intro of myself.I m here to discuss about the topic. Though I m not very keen on the KLSE because IMO the regulator is very slow in doing its job to prevent cornering its the only 2 mkt widely available for trade in M'sia.
The other one is my speciality but I dont think anyone reading this forum would give much interest. so i just focus on the KLse.

In giving my opinion and have it written down, i hope will develop my dicipline in trading.

I will try to guide us through  trend analysis base on my knowledge of elliot wave theory.

What we have now is possibly a major A-B-C correction for the trend wave that begin in December 2002 and completed in November 2003. Acccording to the theory the duration of this wave will last for 3 to 6 month and it could be a zig zag or a flat. But i bet it is a flat (probably a Rectangular) as the current mkt sentiment is quite strong going foward. So if it is a flat correction the range is going to be 760 - 820. Can u imagibe the mkt trade in this range for another 3 months or so. I can.

At this current momment mkt will trade between 775-800. This quite a tight range could possibly last a week or 2. And then we see what happen deppend on which  way it breaks.

Now that I have determine the range lets pen down some trading idea.

As DJ close up on friday Mkt should open positive Mon. but punters who had bought on Wed. and Fri. will cash in their profit soon but because the vol is small it should be well absorb.( The second board leader'; EDEN could reach its resistence of 1.50)But because the next strong resistence is 800 which is only another 20 points, traders should put a very tight stop loss point to their purchase ( whether you buy stocks or Futures Index)

If market fail to hold above 775 next week as a swing trader I will liqudiate my positon.

There we go ........ you never know till you bet.

[ Last edited by kuti on 28-12-2003 at 12:54 AM ]

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031219  2.213   2.240   2.183   2.213       6,888   Bearish
20031222  2.218   2.242   2.191   2.222       5,805   Consolidate->Bullish
20031223  2.229   2.249   2.196   2.226       7,186   Bullish->Consolidate
20031224  2.205   2.237   2.189   2.222       5,497   Consolidate
20031226  2.216   2.249   2.201   2.234       5,254   Consolidate->Bullish


Is the market making any move yet? Errr... yup... moving nowhere....

I guess, I better polish my skill at knitting....   :blush:

Kuti,

Yup... the regulator is slow... But that's where the fun is... Now I don't have to woory about them, no?

Welcome dude! Your view on the market using Elliot Wave is very much appreciated!

One thing I learn about posting my daily market view is that, I make sure that I make the best of an analysis. I don't want to be wrong in front of everybody. When I'm nor sure, I'll say I'm not sure. When I make my own notes, only to be viewed by myself, I tend to be too optimistic at times, and too pessimistic at others... So, sharing is not a bad thing, as it put me into the right perspective...


Cheers!
Nora

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031222  2.218   2.242   2.191   2.222       5,805   Consolidate->Bullish
20031223  2.229   2.249   2.196   2.226       7,186   Bullish->Consolidate
20031224  2.205   2.237   2.189   2.222       5,497   Consolidate
20031226  2.216   2.249   2.201   2.234       5,254   Consolidate->Bullish
20031229  2.242   2.301   2.229   2.287       9,097   Bullish


The market action during the last hour yesterday was quite perculiar, don't you think? There are signs of the market being slammed down, but then revived back up. Looks like a fierce battle between the big bears and the big bulls. Nevertheless, a lot of Breakouts did happended, which is good.

How do I know that yesterday's actions are food instead of baits? Do you know?

I'm a small fish. I saw food. I'll let others eat them "food" first. If only small fishes eat them and get snapped, they are baits and I'll continue with my knittings happily. If big hungry sharks eat them... the leftover will surely satisfy me....

Cheers!

First of all, I forgot to bring my data today to the office... urggghh! So for today, no numbers.... (pheewww you said?? Grrrrrr.... )

Anyway, the numbers shows Bullish yesterday for all Open, High, Low & Close, with volume > 10K. That's good... However, Close is a bit lower than Open. Is that good?

Hmmm... yesterday, the smalls fishes ate the baits during the opening bell, by abundance. They issued Buy order before the opening bell, using market order, then found themselves to be the food on somebody else's table... Learn people... never take baits like that... never issue Buy Order before the opening bell... Hmmmm...

How about the big hungry sharks? Well... they did came in in the afternoon... but at some lower price.... hmmm... better ate with them sharks, right?

Anyway, for those who had entered, just watch your stoploss...

Hai Nora , Hai everyone reading this forum!

Its look like klse composite index is still stuck in rectangular trading range of 765-800. I spot  778 to be the support for this week trading. It need to hold steady above this level to maintain good sentiment; CNY rally is then still a possibility. If it fail its  back to square 1.

As a swing trader I am already out of my long position in general mkt and the CI futures after the rally lost  its steam 0n 31/12. I will  take new long position on my general list this week only if the CI break through 800 with a little bit of volume and put 793 as a stop lost point in case of a false break. However I dont think its time to go short on the Ci futures just yet if the mkt break down.

Focus this week is on the so call 'new found leader of the mkt'. Counters like CAB,,Ftec, Opcom, Seloga, Fcw,Ebworx, Ofi, megan, mieco and Srii may still have life in them.

And for those who like over speculative counters,( the hot hot one) , I thought Thursday or Friday might be a better days to enter them. Last but not least watch out for laggards that havent move at all last year.

.....happy hunting...

[ Last edited by kuti on 4-1-2004 at 09:18 PM ]

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031226  2.216   2.249   2.201   2.234       5,254   Consolidate->Bullish
20031229  2.242   2.301   2.229   2.287       9,097   Bullish
20031230  2.302   2.329   2.263   2.290      10,345   Bullish
20031231  2.281   2.313   2.253   2.289      11,755   Consolidate->Bearish
20040102  2.254   2.277   2.226   2.253       9,539   Bearish



The market seems not to act right lately. Like what Nicholas Darvas used to do when market did not act right, I'll do the same thing.... What he usually do when his counter acting funny? He raised up his stoploss....

Cheers!

Ahhh...

Thanks Mr/Ms Moderators, for sticky-ing this topic... ;)

Cheers!
Nora Ismail

Last 5 days of Nora Index (NI)

Date         Open   High     Low      Close    Volume
=======  ===== =====  =====  =====   ======
20031229  2.242   2.301   2.229   2.287       9,097   Bullish
20031230  2.302   2.329   2.263   2.290      10,345   Bullish
20031231  2.281   2.313   2.253   2.289      11,755   Consolidate->Bearish
20040102  2.254   2.277   2.226   2.253       9,539   Bearish
20040105  2.276   2.305   2.255   2.288       7,049   Bullish


Yup, you saw it right. The numbers said it's bullish. Is it? Frankly, I dunno. From one school of thought, when a market does not show any definative direction, it would be better to stay away from it. You may take that and stay away.

Me? My stops still untouched, so I'll stay in...