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[Politik]
Crowd Forecasting GE14 (BN: Kerusi Parlimen = 100.9, Kerajaan Negeri = 7.2; PH:
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Charles Darwin’s cousin Francis Galton went to a country fair. Galton, a formidable scientist himself, asked people to guess the weight of an enormous ox. Most got it absurdly wrong, but the median guess of the 800-strong crowd was just 1 pound off the true weight of the ox, which for the record was 1198 pounds.
The forecasts of an individual may be horribly incorrect or they might be right on the dot, but the variability of individual performance makes it hard to know which individual to trust (think money managers). But if you aggregate the predictions of a crowd of people, you're much more likely to come up with a very strong forecast (think index funds). This is the rationale behind crowd forecasting.
Ini adalah forecast saya tentang keputusan GE14 menggunakan keuputusan dari beberapa poll di Cari Cina:
(Pada 10:00pm 21/04/2018) BN: Kerusi Parlimen = 100.9, Kerajaan Negeri = 7.2; PH: Kerusi Parlimen = 121.1, Kerajaan Negeri = 5.8
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salah method ni. kena kira suma semua demografi sekali.
melayu urban, melayu semi urban , melayu kampung, melayu totok
cina urban, cina semi urban, cina kampung
india urban, india semi urban, india kampung
pengguna forum hanya merupakan salah satu kategori di atas , keputusannya di forum ni hanya gambarkan kemenangan seat di kwsn bdnr saje.. |
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Gua paham, pengguna forum memang ada 'sentiment bias' bila undi dlm online poll, dan majoriti susah dapat membezakan 'ingat' (what do you THINK?) daripada 'harap' (what do you HOPE?)
jadi crowd forecast tentang no. kerusi parlimen yang Pakatan Harapan akan dapat ni memang overestimated
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